"I am fascinated by the shortest job first algorithm," Jackson said. "This algorithm prioritizes work according to which job can be done in the shortest period of time. If the US in World War II had used this priority to defeat its competitors, it might have supported the effort to knock off the competitor who could be dealt with quickest. World War II started in 1939 when Germany invaded Poland. At the time I think the great powers were the US, the British Empire, France, Germany, the USSR, Italy and Japan--I think that is what I read according to Wikipedia. So in 1939 who was the easiest power to knock off for the US? Geographically Japan and the UK were closest I suppose, but very far away in absolute terms. The weakest of these great powers I would think was probably Italy, maybe the USSR and Germany might also be candidates. So perhaps the US would figure out a way of concentrating against Italy. This might mean just helping out enemies of Italy. In this case it was the British Empire, who was interested in protecting the Mediterranean to allow sea lanes to be open between Britain and its far eastern colonies, which they could access via the Suez Canal in their colony of Egypt. So the US might help the British weaken the Italians. In 1940, the Germans conquered France. This knocked out one great power unexpectedly. Now there was the US, the British Empire, Germany, Italy, the USSR and Japan as great powers remaining. Who could the US knock off quickest at this point? Italy and the USSR probably seemed weakest at this point. The US at this point might seek to continue helping Britain with the aim of weakening Italy in North Africa. The US could consider helping Japan against the USSR but it seems that any action Japan took against the USSR would not knock the USSR out, because the most valuable land in the USSR was in Europe, where a decisive blow would more likely come from. So the US would stick to helping the Brits knock out the Italians.
"Although perhaps the Brits were the weakest great power at this point. What if the US turned its attentions form knocking Italy out of the great power club and towards Britain as the Germans isolated the Brits? Actually, that is not implausible. Without the US help, it seems plausible the British might have collapsed as a great power and its empire would have fallen apart. But perhaps it would simply do as Winston Churchill had said, and fought on in the colonies. But perhaps Britain would be like France--a colonial power knocked out of the great power club by a knock to its homeland. I don't think France had as extensive a colonial system though. Britain had India.
"It seems plausible at least that Britain would not be a great power anymore if Britain was conquered by the Germans with the help of the US.
"Well, let's consider that as an alternative for the 'shortest job first' algorithm of US foreign policy priorities in knocking out great power competitors.
"Okay, so 1941--we're assuming the US has helped Britain with the aim of knocking out the perceived 'shortest job' of Italy. Germany has knocked out France and now turns to the USSR. Who is the weakest of the great powers now? The US, Britain, Germany, Italy, the USSR and Japan remain in the game. Britain looks weak, Italy looks weak, Germany looks strong, the USSR--it's a tough call--possibly, and Japan right now seems pretty strong I guess. Japan attacked the US in late 1941 too so the US is formally at war with them.
"Well, when Germany turns to USSR, people have argued, I think, that they had given up on the idea of knocking out Britain. If the US said they would help Germany after they had conquered France, possibly Britain could have been weakened, possibly it could still keep in the game by fighting from the colonies as Churchill argued--Britain had Canada, Australia, India, and probably other considerable holdings that could be mobilized. So one should be cautious about turning on Britain as they seem rather robust. Ditto the USSR as they have such a great strategic depth. Italy still seems rather favorable as the US can help Britain rather easily, and Italy doesn't have much strategic depth, and it's not a robust colonial power like Britain. Arguably also Germany is the weakest of the great powers because its fighting Britain and USSR--two powers with great strategic depth, one based on its considerable colonial holdings and the other because of its vast geographic size and resources and ability to mobilize industry--though at the onset of the German attack on the USSR, I don't know how clear it would be that the USSR could move its industry outside the grasp of Germany.
"So I think the best bet is to help Britain versus Italy and focus on knocking them out. They still seem like the weakest of the great powers. Okay, 1942. The great powers are the US, Britain, Germany, Italy, the USSR, and Japan. The weakest power--Germany has knocked out the USSR from the war, and is fighting Britain and the USSR. Italy is being propped up by Germany in North Africa against Britain who is being helped by the US. One interesting what-if is that if the US had focused on helping Britain but not the USSR, on the premise of focusing on the shortest job first and not spreading around help, then would the USSR have collapsed against Germany--in other words was US aid decisive in keeping the USSR in the war?
"Impossible to know, but another interesting possibility to consider. We'll assume the USSR was able to hang on without help. Also I think probably Italy will probably get knocked out quicker if the US is focusing on them. Anyway, Italy is still focused on I guess by the US in 1942 and Japan is just given enough attention to protect the US. The US continues to help Britain against Italy, either with lend-lease supplies or now that the US are into war and the Axis has declared war on the US, the US can just get on with attacking Italy with the Brits.
"1943 who is the 'shortest job'? The US, Britain, Italy, Germany, the USSR, and Japan are the great powers still in the game. Who's weakest? Germany is weakening and the USSR is strengthening with Stalingrad's outcome in early 1943. North Africa sees the Axis leave in 1943 as well. Italy is most threatened because they are a hop across the Mediterranean. I think Italy is still the weakest power. Germany is probably second. Third would be Japan. Fourth maybe Britain. Fifth USSR. So that would be the order with which the US would deal with great powers. 1943 sees Italy kicked out of the great powers as it loses North Africa and really, it had been propped up by Germany anyway in North Africa.
"1944, the great powers remaining are US, Britain, Germany, the USSR and Japan. Germany looks weakest. The US will help knock them out of the great power club this year.
"1945 Germany is knocked out of the great power club. The US then would turn against Japan I think. When Japan gets knocked out, then the US would turn against Great Britain, and then the USSR.
"So let me consider now the alternative possibilities--the US turns on the UK after Germany knocks France out of the war. Two salient possibilities--Britain ceases to be a great power, or it remains and fights from the colonies. I suspect the first option--I suspect that if the US sided with Germany, then the Us would seize Canada and also help Britain starve out the British Empire in the Battle of the Atlantic. Britain would have its other colonies but would be something like Vichy France at this point in terms of power.
"So at this point the remaining great powers would be the US, Germany, Italy, the USSR and Japan. The weakest of them at this point it seems would be either Italy or the USSR. Germany I think would likely then turn against the USSR, in which case it would be isolated against the Axis powers. From an alliance perspective the USSR would be weakest then, whereas Italy, the other candidate for weakest power had Germany as a powerful friend. Italy might be more powerful too as it might have gained land from the British Empire in North Africa with the defeat of Britain by Germany and the US.
"So I suspect the USSR was the weakest power remaining at this point, and so the US would bandwagon and help knock out the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union collapsed, who would be the weakest of the remaining powers? Germany, Italy and Japan would remain along with the US. Japan is perhaps the easiest to get to, though Italy is also a candidate I suppose. Japan would probably have a harder time of getting help from its partners in Europe whereas if the US attacked Italy it could get help from Germany easily due to closeness.
"I'll guess that the US goes after Japan and picks them off in a war. I suspect also that Germany would side with the US in such a war for racist reasons. After Japan was subjugated, then the US I think would attack Italy. I suspect Germany would try to help Italy. Who know show that would go. And if the US knocked out Italy, then it would focus on Germany.
"The other interesting possibility was that the USSR without the help the US, who we imagined would be helping exclusively Britain against the weakest perceived great power who could be dispatched quickest, Italy, would collapse against Germany in 1941. If that happened then the remaining powers would be the US, Britain, Germany, Italy and Japan. I think the US would continue focusing on Italy to knock them out of the war, although perhaps this would mean essentially facing off against Germany who seems to be the strongest power at the moment--in other words, Italy might be weakest in isolation, but when considering its alliances and its proximity to its strong ally, Germany, one might consider Japan as a better candidate--Japan has Germany as a strong ally, but Germany is remote. On the other hand, Germany might be able to support Japan through Siberia as it has conquered the USSR in this scenario. Still, that's a long way, and arguably Germany would prefer the US to win over Japan for racist reasons.
"Well, let's say that the US thinks they can essentially knock Italy out of the great power group--when Germany becomes the main force the US is facing it'll back off, but Italy will have at this point become a Germany colony. Arguably this had sort of happened anyway when the British knocked back the Italians and Rommel was sent to North Africa.
"Well, let's say that the US turns against Japan as the easiest candidate for getting booted from the great power club. The US knocks Japan out in a war in the Pacific, with the help of Great Britain who has also been attacked by Japan.
"The remaining great powers then would be the US, Britain, Germany and Italy. I think the US would focus on knocking Italy out of the war and would essentially do so, with the help of Britain. They'd climb up the boot and push the Nazis more or less out of Italy.
"This is where things get very tricky--who know? The US, Britain and Germany remain as great powers. Who is weakest? I suspect actually Britain is--Germany seems like the greatest land power at this point, with the resources of Eurasia at its fingertips and its superior battle doctrine. Britain is a great sea power, but at this point, I would think the US is way up there too--I don't know but I would guess that the US is even greater as a sea power than Britain. So I think the US would turn against Britain and conquer it. Then it would face off against the remaining super power of Germany.
"I should add as I talked here I actually seemed to employ a 'Shortest Remaining Time' algorithm rather than a 'Shortest Job First' algorithm, meaning I was willing to have the US change its priorities before finishing off one great power, as the situation changed."
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